On prop 8 from a comment stream on M-pyre

The following came from this comment stream from this post over on m-pyre...

...here's what happened... (as seen by another pundit)

early on, the polling was as would be expected in the "left" coast. no on 8 was winning close to margin of error...

first fight was the prop language, which the no side won. "eliminating the right of same-sex marriage from the california constitution," or something to that effect. this was instead of some version of "defining marriage" language that the Yes side wanted.

(the poll numbers were the exact opposite depending on how you asked the question. If the question was do you want eliminate rights no was up like 52 - 48, and if you asked is marriage between a man and a woman yes would go up like 52 - 48...)

the first ad bomb came from the yes side. if you didn't see it, you gotta search for it. but basically it had newsom on the steps of SF city hall yelling at the top of his lungs that same sex marriage was here to stay "Whether YOU LIKE IT OR NOT!!!!"

this set the tone for the battle.

while the no on 8 side was reeling from that punch, the yes side got to organizing and focused the majority of their strategic efforts on mobilizing the faith community, no doubt.

then more ads...prop 8 will mandate the teaching of same sex marriage in school blah, blah, blah. this wasn't just an ad, this was a meme that was running through the churches and organizing networks of the yes side.

so while the no side starts to realize that the polls are turning they start to run ads that respond to the charges and do absolutely zero organizing.

yes side keeps on the offense. robo calls, direct mail with obama's picture w/ "i don't support gay marriage" quote, door knocking in communities of color, telling pastors they'd be forced to perform gay marriages, etc., etc.

(watching this happen, i'm like wow this is strategic and organized as hell, right.)

so think about it. no on 8 has basically no outreach or action following winning the initial ballot prop language and yes side baits the no side into straight up culture wars in the streets, you know, because the yes side's already done their organizing and have an army.

i'm talking sending young people of color into the streets...strategically placed in the overlapping demographics of religion, race and orientation. this led to daily coverage of these shouting matches in the streets...and eventually a rally at the state capitol where the yes side really placed the wedge by repeating and repeating and repeating that they're counting on a high obama turnout to pass prop 8.

what can the no side do from there? the no side didn't have any real ground game besides the spontaneous stopping on the side of the road to tell the young people with yes signs how wrong and dumb they were. the no side only rallied in the Castro and west Hollywood. No's ad strategy consists of responding to the yes ads and the occasional hey people don't you know this is a civil rights issue cause we put MLK in our ad...ad. (am i starting to sound real bitter like i'm desperately clinging to my copy of the universal declaration of human rights?)

no finally got obama to say no on 8, but by then it was too late. the cards were already played, the traps already set and the game already over. like when you realize someone's like 8 moves ahead of you in a game of chess.